Nice one! I also see much parallels to cycling except for the cycling boom did not trigger much desire for racing, at least not for recreational athletes. In trail running it’s all about races, and that’ll become a problem sooner or later. Small mountain villages (I live in one) and valley can only carry so and so many visitors at a time. Chamonix's mayor already pulled the emergency break limiting the number of participants for UTMB's 2027 edition and beyond. This (and also that ultra trail running is an exceptionally tough sport) could limit or at least slow down the growth of trail running. But that’s just a good guess.
Yes I agree. I think Western States from 2025 was the flashpoint. It was when we started talking more about the sponsors and elites and products than trail running. I mean when was the last time we actually talked about the trails? Like just how beautiful they are.
Thanks, Jonathan! We tend to see these cycles in endurance/'mas participation' sports more than anywhere else. Cycling is not the only sport as a cautionary indicator. We only need to look at Tough Mudder, Spartan, and, today, HYROX as market indicators of the 'bucket listers' and not indicative of the core.
Nice one! I also see much parallels to cycling except for the cycling boom did not trigger much desire for racing, at least not for recreational athletes. In trail running it’s all about races, and that’ll become a problem sooner or later. Small mountain villages (I live in one) and valley can only carry so and so many visitors at a time. Chamonix's mayor already pulled the emergency break limiting the number of participants for UTMB's 2027 edition and beyond. This (and also that ultra trail running is an exceptionally tough sport) could limit or at least slow down the growth of trail running. But that’s just a good guess.
Yes I agree. I think Western States from 2025 was the flashpoint. It was when we started talking more about the sponsors and elites and products than trail running. I mean when was the last time we actually talked about the trails? Like just how beautiful they are.
awesome writeup.
Thanks, Jonathan! We tend to see these cycles in endurance/'mas participation' sports more than anywhere else. Cycling is not the only sport as a cautionary indicator. We only need to look at Tough Mudder, Spartan, and, today, HYROX as market indicators of the 'bucket listers' and not indicative of the core.